CREATE CAP EXEMPTIONS FOR RETURNING WORKERS

Congress has occasionally authorized temporary “returning worker” exemptions from the 66,000 cap, allowing certain workers who previously held H-2B status to be rehired without counting against the new year’s cap. This proposal would make such exemptions permanent for workers who were counted against the cap at least once in the preceding three years, so that repeat participants could return outside the annual limit. These workers can return to their former employer or work for another one.

The Case For

Supporters argue that H-2B cap exemptions for returning workers are an important way to meet time-sensitive seasonal or temporary needs with workers who have already proven themselves to be compliant. They suggest the benefits of filling positions that clearly lack US workers  and are even greater for returning workers, because employers would bring back people who were especially productive and complied fully with legal requirements. Returning workers also need no training and have already complied with all visa rules. Proponents add that the exemption would encourage more H-2B workers to return home rather than overstay, knowing they have a better chance of coming back for future work.

The Case Against

Arguments against cap exemptions for returning workers are made from two different perspectives.

Concern For Foreign Workers

Opponents concerned about foreign laborers argue that if we want to benefit more from the labor of returning workers who have proved their worth and positive impact, we should grant them permanent Green Card visas, which can ultimately lead to citizenship. They argue that foreign workers whom we invite back because they were especially productive are especially deserving of permanent status.
vs
 Concern For US Workers

Many opponents concerned about US workers oppose H-2B and other temporary work visas altogether, preferring to eliminate or at least reduce them. They oppose this proposal because it would increase the number of H-2B visa holders. They argue that any increase in the number of H-2B workers increases employer reliance on these visas and reduces incentives to improve wages or labor standards to the degree needed to entice native workers. Thus, these opponents maintain that any increase in H-2B workers drives down native wages  and further displaces US workers .

What the Evidence Says—Jobs and the Economy

Credible research indicates that immigrant workers can sometimes take the place of some native workers, which economists call the substitution effect. These substitution effects tend to concentrate among US workers with whom immigrants share similar skills, such as lower-skill minorities and prior immigrants, although the size of the effects on minorities is contested. Evidence also shows that when businesses can’t hire temporary workers in jobs for which it’s especially hard to find native-born workers, the businesses shrink and hire fewer native workers too. In the opposite scenario, reputable studies also confirm that when businesses are able to hire immigrant workers into hard-to-fill jobs, they expand more and hire more native workers in other jobs needed at that business, which economists call the scale effect. A growing body of research suggests that the scale effects are much larger than the substitution effects, meaning that hiring immigrants generally has no broad negative effect or creates more jobs for native workers, not fewer. Studies consistently find that immigrants are about 50% more likely to start new businesses than natives, from small businesses to industrial giants. Because entrepreneurs on average create jobs, a workforce with relatively more immigrants creates jobs for native workers more than a workforce with relatively fewer immigrants. According to the best available evidence the net effect of immigrant workers is to stimulate the creation of more jobs for native workers and significantly grow the economy, but evidence is less conclusive on the impacts for concentrated groups of US workers who may compete more directly with new immigrants. While some claim that higher numbers of undocumented immigrants in an industry can lead to worse working conditions, and negatively impact US workers as a result, there is little evidence indicating that these spillover effects are common or related to the presence of undocumented workers. While a greater supply of undocumented labor puts downward pressure on the wages of natives who remain in directly competing roles, it puts upward pressure on the wages of natives who shift into complementary tasks. In the best evidence we have, these effects roughly balance for workers at the same firm, with a negligible positive effect on the wages of native coworkers. Studies suggest that undocumented workers themselves face lower wages and are not compensated as much when working in dangerous conditions. The evidence suggests that unscrupulous employers may take advantage of workers’ lack of legal status to cut corners on wage and safety laws, since undocumented workers are less likely to file complaints out of fear of deportation. It’s clear that undocumented workers themselves are the most disadvantaged by their lack of legal status, and evidence indicates that overall impacts on US workers are not substantial.

What the Evidence Says—Native Workers’ Wages

The effect of immigrants on Native Workers’ Wages is among the biggest concerns expressed in Congress and among Americans, and as a result economists have rigorously studied this topic. The best economic analyses consistently show that the long-run, total impact of increased immigration on Americans’ average wages is nearly zero (NAS 2017, Peri 2014, BPC 2014). One of the best analyses of 27 different economic studies finds that in 19 of these 27 studies, a 1% increase in immigrants’ share of the labor force predicted changes to Native Workers’ Wages narrowly ranging between -0.1 and 0.1 percent. Applied to today’s economy, these findings indicate the median American family could see their income change, rising or falling, by about $63 a year if 1.67 million more immigrants enter the workforce. The best studies may show a negative impact or a positive one, but the size of these impacts is consistently very small. There may be few issues in all of economics on which there is stronger consensus. Because many immigrants arrive in the US with lower levels of formal education, there is special concern among policymakers about the impacts of immigration on Americans whose highest educational level is a high school degree or lower. Under a strict series of economic assumptions (primarily about the degree to which different US and immigrant workers act as substitutes to each other in the labor market) some economic studies find a larger negative effect of immigration on wages for Americans without a high school degree. Using these same assumptions, the effects on the wages of those with a high school degree are positive and outweigh any total negative wage effects from immigration. Under equally plausible economic assumptions, research has even found positive effects on the wages of Americans with less than a high school degree. Using real-world data from a massive influx of Cuban immigrants into Miami in 1980, economists found a near-zero impact of the rapid increase in immigrants on the wages of native workers, even on those with only high school degrees. While there is mixed evidence regarding the impacts of immigration on the relatively small number of Americans with less than a high school degree, economic evidence consistently demonstrates that other factors have been far more responsible for declining wages among the much larger group of those with a high school degree or less. Between 1979 and 2019, these Americans saw their median real (inflation adjusted) wages decrease by 13.7% while wages for Americans with a bachelor’s and advanced degree increased by 9.2% and 27.2% respectively. The best economic studies attribute these relative wage losses mostly to technological shifts (two studies here and here) and somewhat to changes in international trade (especially with China). These studies generally conclude that immigration was not an important factor in the relative wage losses of Americans with high school degrees. Finally, evidence indicates that the effects of immigration policy choices depend on other policy decisions by the government. For example, the small labor market effects of immigration on the least-skilled natives are most benign in states that have adopted the strongest labor-market protections for all workers, native and immigrant alike.